Hot Pick Stock, BJTOTO

不要错过，MACD交叉股==〉BJTOTO

根据历史，股息12月份的宣布日是

12/12/2008   7.0 sen

07/12/2007   8.0 sen

08/12/2006   25.0 sen

09/12/2005   12.5 sen

08/12/2004   8.0 %

17/12/2003   8.0 %

18/12/2002   5.0 %

 

开始收票了。。。等待股息宣布！！！

8 DEC 2009 ???

The mystery of Sugar King Kuok exiting sugar business in M'sia

IT is and probably will remain a mystery why Tan Sri Robert Kuok has exited the sugar business in Malaysia. It is likely though that the following reasons played a part: First, the Malaysian sugar business is small compared with Kuok’s vast businesses overseas, especially in China.

Second, Kuok got a decent price for his exit and third, the Kuok group was unhappy with developments taking place at Tradewinds (M) Bhd, where a proposed acquisition of Padiberas Nasional Bhd (Bernas) is likely to result in Tradewinds having an unreasonable amount of debt.
Kuok’s business empire in Asia needs little elaboration. Suffice to say, his net worth of US$10bil (RM34.3bil, based on Forbes magazine’s estimation) makes his Malaysian sugar business small by comparison.

The Kuok group’s Singapore-listed plantation giant, Wilmar International, has a market capitalisation of S$39.1bil or more than RM95bil.

To recap, Kuok’s vehicle, PPB Group Bhd, is getting RM1.25bil from the sale of its sugar refineries and land used for sugar cane cultivation to Federal Land Development Authority (Felda). Of this, the largest asset is the Prai-based Malayan Sugar Manufacturing Co Bhd (MSM) operations, that was sold for RM1.2bil.

PPB Group said its cost of investment in MSM was RM60mil (incurred from 1976 to 1999), thereby giving it a massive gain of RM1.17bil from the sale.

That amount is justified, given that the investment had been made a long time ago as well as the fact that the Kuok group had managed the business well.

Furthermore, the price of RM1.2bil represents a price-earnings multiple of 9.8 times MSM’s FY2008 earnings and a price-to-book ratio of 2.46 times. On both counts, the deal seems to have been reasonably priced.

PPB Group had also disposed of its 20% stake in Tradewinds to Felda for RM207.5mil or RM3.50 per share. This was done at about a 20% premium over Tradewinds’ three months’ weighted average market price. While some could argue that this was at too high a premium, it should also been seen in light of the fact that Tradewinds’ net assets per share stood at RM4.63 as at June 30.

Kuok’s exit from Tradewinds had been speculated in media reports, soon after the latter announced plans to buy into Bernas.

In 2002, Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary had surfaced in Tradewinds and become a partner with the Kuok group. Syed Mokhtar controls about 43% of Tradewinds, compared with Kuok’s 20%.

It had been speculated that the partnership had been uneasy, although that could not be verified. Still, the fact remains that Syed Mokhtar owes Tradewinds some RM200mil and there have been related party transactions involving Tradewinds and him.

For example, Syed Mokhtar is said to control about 22% of Bernas, the company that Tradewinds is planning to buy. That purchase will gear up Tradewinds to unreasonable levels. There is now also a proposal for Tradewinds Plantation Bhd, a 70% unit of Tradewinds, to buy rubber conglomerate Mardec Bhd for RM150mil.

Syed Mokhtar is believed to be linked to Semi Bayu Sdn Bhd, which owns Mardec. The price of RM150mil was arrived at based on a valuation done by Ernst & Young, which used such benchmarks as adjusted net assets, discounted cash flows and the dividend discount model.

However, the announcement by Tradewinds Plantation does not provide any more details on how Mardec stacked up on these valuation methods. There is also no information on Mardec’s earnings.

There has been at least one other related party transaction involving Tradewinds and assets controlled by Syed Mokhtar.

Back to Kuok. PPB Group’s sugar refining operations are undertaken by MSM and a joint venture with Felda – Kilang Gula Felda Perlis Sdn Bhd –- which is also being sold to Felda. The two produce over 700,000 tonnes of refined sugar yearly. Kuok’s exit from these business is bound to have repercussions.

“With Kuok’s exit, will the management remain the same and as efficient, going forward?” asked an industry observer.

To be sure, Felda is seeking to reinvent itself. The entity that is buying PPB Group’s businesses is Felda Global Ventures Sdn Bhd (FGV). FGV is the new commercial arm of Felda aiming to spend over RM6bil in the next five years to expand its overseas presence in its core plantations and related businesses.

With that kind of firepower, it is conceivable that FGV may not be content with its 20% shareholding in Tradewinds.

“It is possible that Felda could seek to take over the operations of Tradewinds, considering that the latter will have Bernas in its stable,” said an analyst. Bernas is the country’s sole rice importer, with a wide marketing and distribution network nationwide.

At what price will Syed Mokhtar be willing to cash out of Tradewinds is another matter.

As far as Kuok is concerned though, this “cashing out” of Malaysia is more clear-cut than what happened in December 2006, when PPB Oil Palms Bhd injected its palm oil operations into Singapore-listed Wilmar International Ltd.

The counter argument then was that the merger brought about economies of scale and Malaysian shareholders still benefited, as there was a share swap, with PPB Oil Palm shareholders receiving Wilmar shares.

Furthermore, PPB Group ended up owning close to 18% of Wilmar, so the argument that Kuok was exiting Malaysia did not hold up.

Indeed, Kuok still has other small businesses in Malaysia and Wilmar even recently paid RM46.2mil for a stake in little-known Three-A Resources Bhd to venture into China together.
But the value of these businesses is small compared with Kuok’s sugar business here. In all likelihood, Kuok is unlikely to be troubled by the recent sale of his sugar assets here.

OSK Research reckons that the PPB Group may use the sale proceeds to invest in Wilmar China, which is planning an initial public offering in Hong Kong.

And judging by the way Wilmar’s China businesses are growing, Kuok is likely to get more bang for his buck by putting his money there. And so too will shareholders of the PPB Group.

Source: http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/11/4/business/5037325&sec=business

糖王換人做

財經評論 2009-11-03 12:41

上週企業最大事是甚麼？國家汽車政策？老套，還是保護國產車，逼人民買貴車；明訊上市？已經是舊聞，只等待看重新上市的表現；那是甚麼？大馬糖王換人做！

上週五傍晚，由大馬首富郭鶴年控制的PPB集團無預警的突然宣佈，全面退出大馬糖業和米業，令市場大為吃驚，因為這可能是郭鶴年淡出大企業界的先兆，郭鶴年如果單純因為本身問題要退休不是問題，問題是：他為甚麼突然大動作賣掉業務根基的米糖業務？

他的大動作，發生在香港公司宏德國際被逼退出國家稻米大股東行列，由土著企業家丹斯里賽莫達接手股權的兩天後，時間更令人有諸多臆測。賽莫達通過貿易風全面獻購國稻，而郭氏兄弟則持有貿易風的20%股權。

郭鶴年在賣掉制糖業務的同時，也賣掉在貿易風的20%股權，市場有不少解讀，大部份認為他在對於貿易風全面獻購國稻表達不滿；之前他在貿易風特大會上，對全購國稻議程放棄投標權，已經引發“不滿”的說法，雖然貿易風主席拿督賽阿都查化出面“消毒”，表示郭集團也同意收購國稻建議，但上週五的舉動，鞏固的“不滿”的猜測。

接下來的猜測是：他為甚麼退出大馬糖業？是商業操作還是有背後的其他原因？
商業操作的話，就令人費 解，15億令吉是大數目，脫售令PPB集團和郭鶴年都賺不少。但是， PPB集團並不缺錢；而郭鶴年貴為大馬首富，身價高達307億令吉，最多就是錢。

對PPB集團和郭鶴年來說，錢容易找，現金流穩定的業務難尋，需要做這種“殺雞取卵”，不理智的商業決策嗎？PPB集團在經濟風暴中保持標青業績，靠得就是製糖和甘蔗種植的穩定收入，何況明年是商品當道，這時候脫售，點與線都不合理。

如果非關商業，是其他因素的介入，諸如政治因素逼退宏德國際的故事重演，就令人痛心和擔心了。

宏德國際投資國稻時間非常久，一直以來都沒有問題。不過，有一天有一位政治人物可能太空閒（大馬政治人物出名無所事事，天馬行空搞事情），不小心發現宏德在國稻的股權有31.5%，超過另一名土著大股東賽莫達的30.8%股權，不得了，他於是終於在國會有發言的機會：國家米糧由外資控制，太危險了，如果外資發動糧食戰爭，大馬會因為缺糧而亡。

本來很單純的商業投資，被政治人物誇大變成“殺傷力極大的危險武器”，最終宏德只好放棄在國稻的投資，由土著賽莫達接手，於是“殺傷力武器”又變回純白的稻米，沒事了!
白糖事件會是白米事件的翻版嗎？郭鶴年不是外資，他一直是大馬人。

郭鶴年近年的業務重心雖然移至海外，特別是在香港和中國特別活躍，但在大馬，旗下上市公司不少，除了PPB集團，還有大馬散裝貨運、澄心亞洲、香格里拉和金鵬集團等，他成為首富，是以米糧糖起家，使他有“大馬糖王”的美稱，前首相敦阿都拉設立南部特區，還特別繳請他站台，以增加特區對外資的吸引力，證明他在國際商界的分量。

PPB集團旗下的大馬糖廠供應本地50%白糖，大馬其他主要糖廠是貿易風（郭氏有20%股權）控制的中央白糖提煉公司，現在他悉數脫售大馬糖業，但保留海外白糖出口分銷網，顯示他對白糖業務並非無心戀棧。

如果他是因為其他“不為外人所知”的原因，不得不賣掉“祖業”，把“大馬糖王”的寶座讓給賽莫達坐，如果“這背後原因”讓 郭鶴年決定退出大馬商界，這對積極吸引外資的大馬經濟，拼命說服海外公司來上市的馬股來說，都是震撼彈！

郭鶴年退出大馬米糖業，發生在政府決定取消白米和白糖津貼的同時，時間上也很難不令人有太多其他聯想，當然我們希望一切都只是我們的“過度想象”，這一切只是商業決定！星洲日報／

焦點評析‧作者：陳艷芳‧2009.11.03

Source: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/28545

Stock Event: Trading within the Bands

Date: 11 Oct 2009 (Sunday) 
Time: 10:00am - 12:00pm 

Venue:

Paragon Hotel 
Diamond 5 - Level 6
18, Jalan Harimau,
Taman Century, 80250,
Johor Bahru, Johor,
Malaysia.

Date : 18 Oct 2009 (Sunday) 

Time : 9:30am - 11:30am 

Venue:

Gurney Hotel 

Function Hall 1
18 Persiaran Gurney
10250 Georgetown

Penang

Date: 24 Oct 2009 (Saturday) 
Time: 10:00am - 12:00pm 

Venue:

Heritage Hotel 
Meeting Room 1 - Level 1
Jalan Raja DiHilir
30350 Ipoh
Perak Darul Ridzuan
Malaysia

The Bollinger Bands was developed by Mr. John Bollinger. It is widely used by traders to trade the market effectively.

Many traders often miss the right entry point which might cause a lesser profit or even worst a loss. One of the usages of Bollinger Bands is in the powerful Bollinger Squeeze, which triggers high probability buy or sell signals. Just think of the possible benefits you will get by having indicators to buy as well as to sell!

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Seminar Outline

Introduction to Technical Analysis

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How to construct Bollinger Bands
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Learn how a software can help you pick the next winner in 10 mins

什么是WA,WB,WC,CA,PA,ICULS,OR,OS等

除了PA（preference share）之外，这些产品是统称为derivatives.所有的warrant,call warrant,iculs等都有以下的共同点，

1.转换价（excersise /strike price）
这是把warrant转换为母股的价格，cash settled call warrant方面，这是作为计算赚／损的价格。

2.寿命期（expiry／maturity period）
所有的warrant,callwarrant,iculs等都有一定的寿命期，warrant一般上是五到十年，能否延长是取决于发行warrant时的deed poll,以及Bursa andSC的批准。CA早期有四年的（例，Khazanah 发行的MISC－CA），但最近所发行的CA寿命期非常短，CIMB发行的CA是八个月，AMMB发行的CA是一年。CA不能延长。icul寿命期从二到
十年。
到期的warrant&call warrant假如没有转换为母股，将成为废纸，现金结算（cash-settled）CA例外。到期的iculs自动的以转换比率换为母股。

#2 Warrant 是怎样来的？
当一间公司筹资时，会选择发行附加股（rights issue）或债券（iculs）,为吸引小股东们认购，公司通常会加上甜品，也就是warrant.Warrant 本身起源自call options.请看看Investopedia 对于calloption的定义：

An agreement that gives an investor the right (but not the obligation) to buy astock, bond, commodity, or other instrument at a specified price within aspecific time period.

Warrant因为不是股票，也不是债券，只是期权，所以没有股息，也没有利息。当一间公司支付股息时，warrant价格会受影响调整。

WA,WB,WC...有什么不同？
因为一间公司筹资方式及时间不同，所以，每一次筹资时所发行的warrant转换价以及寿命期都不一样，所以，各个warrant会以WA,WB,WC等来区别。

Warrant一定是由公司本身发行，所以，转换时是由公司本身发出新股。

#3 CA，CB，CC。。。

Call warrant 基本上也是call option,但和warrant有稍微不同。
－Call warrant 非由公司发行，issue者是第三者,通常这个第三者是大股东或者是Merchant bank 如CIMB，AMMB，OSK等。

-Call warrant分为covered或uncovered.covered warrant 是由大股东发行，（例khazanah发行的Telecom CA）coveredwarrant到期时只能够以转换价转换成母股，到期没有转换的covered warrant成为废纸。因为转换时没有涉及发行新的母股，公司的earning 不会dilute.

uncovered warrant也称为naked warrant,发行者通常没有或者只拥有很少量的母股。近来发行的call warrant多为这类。uncoveredwarrant结算时以现金支付，不能以转换价转换成母股。（例－Bj Toto 今天闭市价为4.60，如果某人拥有一千股CA要求结算，他将获得4.60减去转换价，也就是4.43，等于RM170。既然现今CA市价为0.34，要求结算者将要亏损RM170。手续费还没算入。）

covered and uncovered warrant结算时相对的一方(counter party)是issuer.


uncovered warrant寿命期一般上比covered warrant短。

不同时期由不同issuer发行的call warrant,由以转换价与寿命期个别不同，因此以CA，CB，CC等区别。

#4－Iredeemable convertible unsecured loanstock(Iculs)－LA，LB。。。
我暂时的跳过Preference share(PA),因为 PA不是derivatives.让我们先谈谈Iculs.

公司筹资的方法之一是发行loanstock(债卷),发行loanstock事实上就是公司向股东借钱,表明利率，年仿及到期时的偿还方法。Loan stock到期时的偿还方法有二种，一是现金偿还，二是以早先表明的转换比率转换成母股。现金偿还者称为redeemable loan stock,可转换成母股者便称为Iredeemable convertible loan stock.我们现在只集中讨论Iredeemable convertible loan stock。


Iculs称为可转换债卷，不同于warrant,寿命期介二至十年，享有利息（如有）到期时以转换比率转换成母股，不会成为废纸。一些Iculs转换时必须添加现金。

Iculs不是股票，也不是warrant,发行Iculs时有份Trust deed说明利率，年仿，转换比率等。

Iculs因为不是warrant,所以没有time decay的问题，接近到期时不会越来越没有time value.

同样的，因为不同期限与转换比率等的差别，loan stock以LA，LB等来区别。购买loan stock必须留意convertible还是unconvertible,后者的capital appreciation 较少。

#5-Preferenceshares(PA)

PA本身是优先股，不是warrant,也不是Iculs.

不同Ordinary share,Preference shares没有voting rights,股息取决于发行时相关的条款。股息又分为cumulative 和non-cumulative.

许多PA到期时可以转换为母股，不会成为废纸。
期权有二种，American style 和European style,American style 的期权可在任何时候要求转换，European style的期权只可以在到期时转换。
大部分的warrant,call warrant是American style,Iculs和PA是Europeanstyle,也有例外。
要转换母股，请首先由Stockbroker or registrar处取得excercise form填好，把转换价以银行本票方式附上给Registrar，大约三个星期，DONE!!!

买iculs和买股票是一样的，找你的Remisier就行了。
回筹方面，假如是convertibleloan stock的话，它的起落应该会和母股平行。Unconvertible loan stock因为不能转换为母股，它的价钱起落不大，只会反映redemption amount on maturity减去/加上interestreceivable and risk premium for redemption .

关于iculs有趣的一点是假如是European style(届满时转换)，它的价钱起落的behaviour和warrant相反，越接近届满时，越靠近母股价，没有time decay 的问题.

什么是认购权(OR,OS)？
当一间公司发附加股或其他的筹资工具时，现有的股东们能享有以公司所定下的折扣价购买附加股或其他的筹资工具。这权利便称为＂认购权＂（rights to subscribe）.一些公司的认购权是可以转卖的。这就是OS，OR的来源。

OS 和OR通常会在申请书寄出后，但before the closing date forsubscription前在Bursa交易二个星期。最后的买方必须以公司所定下的价认购附加股或其他的筹资工具，假如没有购买的话，OS或OR willlapse and成为废纸。
认购权的价值(intrinsic value)是不难估计的，（例，母股市价RM3，附加股为RM2.5，认购权的价值便是RM0.50），可是当认购的附加股或其他的筹资工具有附送如 warrant时，认购权的估值便变得复杂。因为多了一个可变的因素（variable）,ie，warrant price.

Dividend of BJTOTO

翻看历史，BJTOTO每个季度都会给股息。。。在于是多还是少而已！

下个星期，BJTOTO多数会报告业绩,公布股息。。。

如果没有意外,股息将于十月颁发！

真的很期待这回有多少股息？！

是时候开始收票了。。。

见证马股一天爆升400%！！！

4.1.1 30% threshold ruleIf the reference price is above RM1, then a threshold of 30% is defined as higher andlower threshold. These thresholds are also valid at least for one session only.For upper limit, Bursa Malaysia will be adjusted downward to the nearest bid whilelower limit will be adjusted upward to the nearest bid.


4.1.2 RM 0.30 threshold ruleIf the reference price is below RM1, then a threshold of absolute RM0.30 is definedas higher and lower threshold. These thresholds are also valid at least for one sessiononly.

Reference:
http://www.klse.com.my/website/bm/regulation/rules/bursa_rules/downloads/bm_cir_rr10_121108.pdf

FREE Historical Chart

History alway repeat in stock market...

In order to track the history, a lot of software need to pay.

Kindly share with you all, i had found FREE historical chart & quite good review...

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股场日记

目前很多人都在寻找机会进场。。。也很多人站在场外观望。。。而您呢？

这几个星期是我投资以来，交易最少，可说是“零”买卖！

当中有不少因数造成。。。
1． 被套了。。。
2． “Error” on decision making…
3． 时间不够用。。。

但是BJTOTO就快发股息了。。。加上，之前买的数量将会得到odd unit treasurer share，于是再买进以便可以补满odd unit。在此，不忘提醒股友新手，在ex-date前补满odd unit，至少不会遗憾为何当初不补满它！

不论您是寻找机会进场还是站在场外观望。。。希望八月份好消息可以带来新一轮的牛市，大家一起发发发吧。。。

Minimum Bids

A minimum bid is the permissible change on the offer to buy price over the previous done or quoted price. When trading on Bursa Malaysia, bids and offers for shares within different price ranges follow different minimum bids.

The following are the minimum bids for the different price ranges:

Sourse: Bursa Malaysia