Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Hot Pick Stock, BJTOTO

不要错过,MACD交叉股==BJTOTO

根据历史,股息12月份的宣布日是

12/12/2008   7.0 sen

07/12/2007   8.0 sen

08/12/2006   25.0 sen

09/12/2005   12.5 sen

08/12/2004   8.0 %

17/12/2003   8.0 %

18/12/2002   5.0 %

 

开始收票了。。。等待股息宣布!!!

8 DEC 2009 ???

Wednesday, November 4, 2009

The mystery of Sugar King Kuok exiting sugar business in M'sia


IT is and probably will remain a mystery why Tan Sri Robert Kuok has exited the sugar business in Malaysia. It is likely though that the following reasons played a part: First, the Malaysian sugar business is small compared with Kuok’s vast businesses overseas, especially in China.

Second, Kuok got a decent price for his exit and third, the Kuok group was unhappy with developments taking place at Tradewinds (M) Bhd, where a proposed acquisition of Padiberas Nasional Bhd (Bernas) is likely to result in Tradewinds having an unreasonable amount of debt.
Kuok’s business empire in Asia needs little elaboration. Suffice to say, his net worth of US$10bil (RM34.3bil, based on Forbes magazine’s estimation) makes his Malaysian sugar business small by comparison.

The Kuok group’s Singapore-listed plantation giant, Wilmar International, has a market capitalisation of S$39.1bil or more than RM95bil.


To recap, Kuok’s vehicle, PPB Group Bhd, is getting RM1.25bil from the sale of its sugar refineries and land used for sugar cane cultivation to Federal Land Development Authority (Felda). Of this, the largest asset is the Prai-based Malayan Sugar Manufacturing Co Bhd (MSM) operations, that was sold for RM1.2bil.

PPB Group said its cost of investment in MSM was RM60mil (incurred from 1976 to 1999), thereby giving it a massive gain of RM1.17bil from the sale.

That amount is justified, given that the investment had been made a long time ago as well as the fact that the Kuok group had managed the business well.

Furthermore, the price of RM1.2bil represents a price-earnings multiple of 9.8 times MSM’s FY2008 earnings and a price-to-book ratio of 2.46 times. On both counts, the deal seems to have been reasonably priced.

PPB Group had also disposed of its 20% stake in Tradewinds to Felda for RM207.5mil or RM3.50 per share. This was done at about a 20% premium over Tradewinds’ three months’ weighted average market price. While some could argue that this was at too high a premium, it should also been seen in light of the fact that Tradewinds’ net assets per share stood at RM4.63 as at June 30.

Kuok’s exit from Tradewinds had been speculated in media reports, soon after the latter announced plans to buy into Bernas.

In 2002, Tan Sri Syed Mokhtar Al-Bukhary had surfaced in Tradewinds and become a partner with the Kuok group. Syed Mokhtar controls about 43% of Tradewinds, compared with Kuok’s 20%.


It had been speculated that the partnership had been uneasy, although that could not be verified. Still, the fact remains that Syed Mokhtar owes Tradewinds some RM200mil and there have been related party transactions involving Tradewinds and him.

For example, Syed Mokhtar is said to control about 22% of Bernas, the company that Tradewinds is planning to buy. That purchase will gear up Tradewinds to unreasonable levels. There is now also a proposal for Tradewinds Plantation Bhd, a 70% unit of Tradewinds, to buy rubber conglomerate Mardec Bhd for RM150mil.

Syed Mokhtar is believed to be linked to Semi Bayu Sdn Bhd, which owns Mardec. The price of RM150mil was arrived at based on a valuation done by Ernst & Young, which used such benchmarks as adjusted net assets, discounted cash flows and the dividend discount model.

However, the announcement by Tradewinds Plantation does not provide any more details on how Mardec stacked up on these valuation methods. There is also no information on Mardec’s earnings.

There has been at least one other related party transaction involving Tradewinds and assets controlled by Syed Mokhtar.

Back to Kuok. PPB Group’s sugar refining operations are undertaken by MSM and a joint venture with Felda – Kilang Gula Felda Perlis Sdn Bhd –- which is also being sold to Felda. The two produce over 700,000 tonnes of refined sugar yearly. Kuok’s exit from these business is bound to have repercussions.

“With Kuok’s exit, will the management remain the same and as efficient, going forward?” asked an industry observer.

To be sure, Felda is seeking to reinvent itself. The entity that is buying PPB Group’s businesses is Felda Global Ventures Sdn Bhd (FGV). FGV is the new commercial arm of Felda aiming to spend over RM6bil in the next five years to expand its overseas presence in its core plantations and related businesses.

With that kind of firepower, it is conceivable that FGV may not be content with its 20% shareholding in Tradewinds.

“It is possible that Felda could seek to take over the operations of Tradewinds, considering that the latter will have Bernas in its stable,” said an analyst. Bernas is the country’s sole rice importer, with a wide marketing and distribution network nationwide.

At what price will Syed Mokhtar be willing to cash out of Tradewinds is another matter.

As far as Kuok is concerned though, this “cashing out” of Malaysia is more clear-cut than what happened in December 2006, when PPB Oil Palms Bhd injected its palm oil operations into Singapore-listed Wilmar International Ltd.

The counter argument then was that the merger brought about economies of scale and Malaysian shareholders still benefited, as there was a share swap, with PPB Oil Palm shareholders receiving Wilmar shares.

Furthermore, PPB Group ended up owning close to 18% of Wilmar, so the argument that Kuok was exiting Malaysia did not hold up.

Indeed, Kuok still has other small businesses in Malaysia and Wilmar even recently paid RM46.2mil for a stake in little-known Three-A Resources Bhd to venture into China together.
But the value of these businesses is small compared with Kuok’s sugar business here. In all likelihood, Kuok is unlikely to be troubled by the recent sale of his sugar assets here.

OSK Research reckons that the PPB Group may use the sale proceeds to invest in Wilmar China, which is planning an initial public offering in Hong Kong.

And judging by the way Wilmar’s China businesses are growing, Kuok is likely to get more bang for his buck by putting his money there. And so too will shareholders of the PPB Group.


Tuesday, November 3, 2009

糖王換人做

2009-11-03 12:41

上週企業最大事是甚麼?國家汽車政策?老套,還是保護國產車,逼人民買貴車;明訊上市?已經是舊聞,只等待看重新上市的表現;那是甚麼?大馬糖王換人做!

上週五傍晚,由大馬首富郭鶴年控制的PPB集團無預警的突然宣佈,全面退出大馬糖業和米業,令市場大為吃驚,因為這可能是郭鶴年淡出大企業界的先兆,郭鶴年如果單純因為本身問題要退休不是問題,問題是:他為甚麼突然大動作賣掉業務根基的米糖業務?

他的大動作,發生在香港公司宏德國際被逼退出國家稻米大股東行列,由土著企業家丹斯里賽莫達接手股權的兩天後,時間更令人有諸多臆測。賽莫達通過貿易風全面獻購國稻,而郭氏兄弟則持有貿易風的20%股權。

郭鶴年在賣掉制糖業務的同時,也賣掉在貿易風的20%股權,市場有不少解讀,大部份認為他在對於貿易風全面獻購國稻表達不滿;之前他在貿易風特大會上,對全購國稻議程放棄投標權,已經引發“不滿”的說法,雖然貿易風主席拿督賽阿都查化出面“消毒”,表示郭集團也同意收購國稻建議,但上週五的舉動,鞏固的“不滿”的猜測。

接下來的猜測是:他為甚麼退出大馬糖業?是商業操作還是有背後的其他原因?
商業操作的話,就令人費 解,15億令吉是大數目,脫售令PPB集團和郭鶴年都賺不少。但是, PPB集團並不缺錢;而郭鶴年貴為大馬首富,身價高達307億令吉,最多就是錢。

對PPB集團和郭鶴年來說,錢容易找,現金流穩定的業務難尋,需要做這種“殺雞取卵”,不理智的商業決策嗎?PPB集團在經濟風暴中保持標青業績,靠得就是製糖和甘蔗種植的穩定收入,何況明年是商品當道,這時候脫售,點與線都不合理。

如果非關商業,是其他因素的介入,諸如政治因素逼退宏德國際的故事重演,就令人痛心和擔心了。

宏德國際投資國稻時間非常久,一直以來都沒有問題。不過,有一天有一位政治人物可能太空閒(大馬政治人物出名無所事事,天馬行空搞事情),不小心發現宏德在國稻的股權有31.5%,超過另一名土著大股東賽莫達的30.8%股權,不得了,他於是終於在國會有發言的機會:國家米糧由外資控制,太危險了,如果外資發動糧食戰爭,大馬會因為缺糧而亡。

本來很單純的商業投資,被政治人物誇大變成“殺傷力極大的危險武器”,最終宏德只好放棄在國稻的投資,由土著賽莫達接手,於是“殺傷力武器”又變回純白的稻米,沒事了!
白糖事件會是白米事件的翻版嗎?郭鶴年不是外資,他一直是大馬人。

郭鶴年近年的業務重心雖然移至海外,特別是在香港和中國特別活躍,但在大馬,旗下上市公司不少,除了PPB集團,還有大馬散裝貨運、澄心亞洲、香格里拉和金鵬集團等,他成為首富,是以米糧糖起家,使他有“大馬糖王”的美稱,前首相敦阿都拉設立南部特區,還特別繳請他站台,以增加特區對外資的吸引力,證明他在國際商界的分量。

PPB集團旗下的大馬糖廠供應本地50%白糖,大馬其他主要糖廠是貿易風(郭氏有20%股權)控制的中央白糖提煉公司,現在他悉數脫售大馬糖業,但保留海外白糖出口分銷網,顯示他對白糖業務並非無心戀棧。

如果他是因為其他“不為外人所知”的原因,不得不賣掉“祖業”,把“大馬糖王”的寶座讓給賽莫達坐,如果“這背後原因”讓 郭鶴年決定退出大馬商界,這對積極吸引外資的大馬經濟,拼命說服海外公司來上市的馬股來說,都是震撼彈!

郭鶴年退出大馬米糖業,發生在政府決定取消白米和白糖津貼的同時,時間上也很難不令人有太多其他聯想,當然們希望一切都只是我們的“過度想象”,這一切只是商業決定!星洲日報/

焦點評析‧作者:陳艷芳‧2009.11.03

Source: http://biz.sinchew-i.com/node/28545